Closing the Capability Gap
Building the 'DJI' of the West
The proliferation of cheap, commercially available drones has revolutionized modern warfare, allowing even non-state actors and nations with modest defense budgets to acquire a potent aerial capability. At the forefront of this drone revolution is DJI, a Chinese company that has come to dominate over 70% of the global consumer and commercial drone market1. DJI's rise has been powered by its ability to mass produce highly capable yet inexpensive drones through its tightly controlled supply chain and low-cost manufacturing base in China. Drones that would have cost tens of thousands of dollars just a decade ago can now be had from DJI for just a few hundred dollars. This democratization of drone technology has been a double-edged sword from a Western perspective.
On one hand, U.S. forces and allies have been able to leverage these cheap DJI drones as eyes in the sky for surveillance and reconnaissance missions that previously required much larger and costlier unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The ubiquity of DJI drones has also allowed innovative tactics like drone-launched munitions from quadcopters. However, this same widely available DJI technology has also proliferated to adversaries, terrorist groups, and rogue states. The war in Ukraine has provided a stark case study, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces heavily employing DJI quadcopters for intelligence gathering and deploying surveillance drone-dropped munitions. China has remained DJI's top supplier amid the conflict, inadvertently arming both sides.
Concerns over Chinese technology being exploited by hostile actors have prompted calls to foster the "DJI of the West" - a major commercial drone manufacturer outside of Chinese control. The U.S. military already has plans to ban the use of DJI drones due to cybersecurity fears, highlighting the vulnerabilities of relying on Chinese-manufactured drone hardware and software2. Building a Western counterweight to DJI will require significant investment, technological know-how, and the ability to compete on cost and performance with DJI's massive scale. However, reducing Western reliance on China for such a critical military technology is viewed by many as a national security imperative. As drone warfare becomes ever more pervasive and decisive on future battlefields, ensuring trusted and secure domestic drone manufacturing capability could prove crucial.
Any effort to create a Western counterweight to DJI will have to grapple with the reality that global supply chains for electronics manufacturing are heavily intertwined with China. Key components from chips to batteries to motors to plastics are sourced from Chinese companies or firms with facilities in China. Untangling these dependencies will be an immense challenge.
One strategy could involve vertical integration - controlling more segments of the supply chain directly under Western ownership. This might mean bringing semiconductor fabrication, battery production, and component manufacturing in-house or at least moving it to ally nations. Examples include: Anduril, Neros, Skydio, Skyways, Darkhive, and Teal.
Utilizing innovative manufacturing technologies could help level the playing field. Automating production with advanced robotics, 3D printing critical components, and applying AI to optimize design and assembly could increase efficiency. Examples include: Firestorm, Hadrian, Senra Systems, Freeform, and Rangeview.
Ultimately, the most vexing hurdle may be competing with China's skilled yet low-cost labor pool. DJI has been able to combine legions of experienced engineers and production staff with relatively low wages, supercharging productivity and output. The U.S. and allies need to rethink immigration policies to attract and retain top global talent in areas like drone design, artificial intelligence, robotics, and manufacturing. Creating a new affordable "drone workforce" — urban centers designed from the ground up for such production could help cultivate regional skills.
At a national level, future factories may need to be funded and nurtured through public-private initiatives similar to how China nurtures its national champions with direct state support. Tax incentives, subsidized facilities, and government contracts could all play a role in seeding a competitive Western drone maker. Reshoring drone manufacturing to Western nations will be an uphill battle given DJI's entrenchment and China's production capabilities. But for strategic industries like drones, reducing dependence on potential adversaries has become an economic and national security priority. With concerted efforts on new technologies, smart workforce development, and novel production models, a "DJI of the West" may yet emerge from the theoretical to reshape the drone battlefield.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/can-us-drone-makers-compete-with-cheap-high-quality-chinese-drones.html
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/473